Kalshi permanently suspends George Santos over State of Union market trades

George Santos has been permanently suspended from Kalshi and ordered to pay $71,356 after the prediction market exchange concluded that he manipulated contracts tied to his own attendance at the State of the Union address.

The punishment took effect August 28 and covers trading activity from February 2 through February 25, 2026. According to Kalshi’s compliance department, Santos made several large trades on whether he would attend the event, an outcome he could personally influence.

Kalshi’s rules prohibit members from trading contracts when they have control or influence over the underlying event. The exchange said Santos also made public comments about his attendance plans while buying contracts tied to the same question, with some statements described as false or misleading.

“The Compliance Department found that Santos made these statements with the intent to manipulate the price of the Yes or No contracts that he intended to purchase,” the notice said.

The comments moved contract prices, Kalshi found. Santos ultimately earned $17,839.57 from trading in the markets covered by the disciplinary case.

Santos responded on social media, stating: “Hey @Kalshi  thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.”

Kalshi says George Santos profited by manipulating markets he could influence

The exchange cited several violations, including rules against market manipulation, fraud and trading on events a member can influence. Kalshi also cited Rule 3.6(a), covering cooperation with investigations, and Rule 5.17(y), which restricts trading involving material non-public information.

The disciplinary decision follows months of scrutiny around Santos’ prediction-market activity. In June, Santos disputed reports that federal authorities were examining trades connected with his Kalshi account.

“The bases of the accusation is preposterous and I look forward to supplying any information asked of me to any agency that inquires,” Santos wrote.

NPR, the Associated Press and other outlets reported that Kalshi had identified suspicious activity, frozen the account and referred the matter to the Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Federal authorities had not publicly announced charges at that point.

The controversy followed President Donald Trump’s October 2025 decision to commute Santos’ sentence in a separate federal fraud case to time served, with “no further fines, restitution, probation, supervised release, or other conditions.”

Scrutiny of prediction markets has extended beyond Santos. Polymarket strengthened its rules earlier this year, including restrictions involving confidential information and events traders can influence.

“Markets thrive on clarity,” said Neal Kumar, Chief Legal Officer of Polymarket. “These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built. As Polymarket continues to scale, we will build on our foundation with clear communication to Polymarket’s users to ensure our markets do what they do best — surface truth.”

Santos had previously defended prediction markets publicly. During a March episode of his YouTube show, he stated, “It is not a crime to do prediction market.”

Featured image: U.S. House Office of Photography via WikiCommons

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